Short-term modelling
Motivation
Research
conducted since the commodity price peak in recent years (2007-2008) concentrated
on explaining the drivers of price hikes and volatility. The short-term
challenges that policy makers face during such crises have been overlooked.
Research set up and objectives
This work
package aims at forecasting FNS in the short term (3-36 months) and modeling
the mechanisms that can reduce price surges in the food system and its
nutritional impacts. Steps to achieve this comprise:
- Developing
a conceptual framework linking food price volatility and FNS.
- Mapping
hunger and malnutrition as an information base for short term modelling.
- Setting
up a toolbox prepared for the analysis of short and medium term FNS.
- Forecasts of price volatility
and price abnormalities for FNS.
Research approach
This work
package will incorporate more and new global and market specific variables
including FNS indicators into the modelling process. A set of models will be
developed to provide early warnings of FNS and for policy analyses to deal with
volatility risks. A new model will be developed at a global scale under this
work package that will be driven by market fundamentals, including non-food
commodity and financial market drivers.
Outcome
- A
report with a systematic review of analyses on the causes of food price
increase and volatility, linking price volatility to FNS impacts.
- A
database with all key indicators and of volatility measures.
- Analysis
of food price volatility and its impact on FNS of the poor.
- Set
of tools for policy analysis to deal with food price volatility.
Contact
ZEF, Joachim von Braun, jvonbraun@uni-bonn.de
and Nicolas Gerber, ngerber@uni-bonn.de