Workpackage 6

Short-term modelling


 

 

 

 

Motivation

Research conducted since the commodity price peak in recent years (2007-2008) concentrated on explaining the drivers of price hikes and volatility. The short-term challenges that policy makers face during such crises have been overlooked.

Research set up and objectives

This work package aims at forecasting FNS in the short term (3-36 months) and modeling the mechanisms that can reduce price surges in the food system and its nutritional impacts. Steps to achieve this comprise:

  • Developing a conceptual framework linking food price volatility and FNS.
  • Mapping hunger and malnutrition as an information base for short term modelling.
  • Setting up a toolbox prepared for the analysis of short and medium term FNS.
  • Forecasts of price volatility and price abnormalities for FNS.

Research approach

This work package will incorporate more and new global and market specific variables including FNS indicators into the modelling process. A set of models will be developed to provide early warnings of FNS and for policy analyses to deal with volatility risks. A new model will be developed at a global scale under this work package that will be driven by market fundamentals, including non-food commodity and financial market drivers.

Outcome

  • A report with a systematic review of analyses on the causes of food price increase and volatility, linking price volatility to FNS impacts.
  • A database with all key indicators and of volatility measures.
  • Analysis of food price volatility and its impact on FNS of the poor.
  • Set of tools for policy analysis to deal with food price volatility.

Contact

ZEF, Joachim von Braun, jvonbraun@uni-bonn.de
and Nicolas Gerber, ngerber@uni-bonn.de

 



This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 290693