Long-term modelling

Motivation

This work package develops advanced tools that will be used to inform long-term policy making and increase policy coherence.

Research set-up and objectives

The work package brings together the strengths of six models (MAGNET, MIRAGE, IMPACT, GLOBIOM, IMAGE and EPIC) into one toolbox capable of capturing global economic and biophysical developments to 2050 and analyzing food and nutrition security impacts of a range of policies.

Research approach

The toolbox will include an improved representation of the indicators and drivers of food and nutrition security including technological change, nutrition, and household level impacts. The researchers will draw on insights from the determinants module (WP1-4).
Alternative visions of the future to 2050 will be modelled based on stakeholder inputs from work package 5. The Toolbox will be used to evaluate a range of energy, technology and policy scenarios in work packages 9, 10 and 11.

Outcome

• A conceptual framework for the quantitative assessment of food and nutrition security in the long-term.
  
• Scenario results for alternative visions of the future (to 2050) including the implications for food and nutrition security.
• A modelling toolbox capable of analyzing the food and nutrition security impacts of a range of policies.

Contact

LEI, part of Wageningen University and Research Centre.
Lindsay Shutes, lindsay.shutes@wur.nl