Long-term modelling

Motivation
This work package develops advanced tools that will be
used to inform long-term policy making and increase policy coherence.
Research
set-up and objectives
The work package brings together the strengths of six
models (MAGNET, MIRAGE, IMPACT, GLOBIOM, IMAGE and EPIC) into one toolbox
capable of capturing global economic and biophysical developments to 2050 and
analyzing food and nutrition security impacts of a range of policies.
Research
approach
The toolbox will include an improved representation of
the indicators and drivers of food and nutrition security including technological
change, nutrition, and household level impacts. The researchers will draw on
insights from the determinants module (WP1-4).
Alternative visions of the future to 2050 will be modelled
based on stakeholder inputs from work package 5. The Toolbox will be used to
evaluate a range of energy, technology and policy scenarios in work packages 9,
10 and 11.
Outcome
- A conceptual
framework for the quantitative assessment of food and nutrition security
in the long-term.
- Scenario
results for alternative visions of the future (to 2050) including the
implications for food and nutrition security.
- A modelling
toolbox capable of analyzing the food and nutrition security impacts of a
range of policies.
Contact
LEI, part of Wageningen University and Research Centre.
Lindsay Shutes, lindsay.shutes@wur.nl